Let’s talk reman transmission lifecycles. If you’ve been following our monthly market updates (and if you haven’t…shame on you), you know we’ve seen incredible growth in demand of 6-speed transmission remans. Check out our blog from February about that here!
Now that we’re already midway through 2023, we want to take a look ahead on what we expect for 6-speeds in the next 5-7 years. Vehicle age is the primary factor driving demand for all transmission remans, of course. Using both external and internal data sources we’ve mapped out our expectations for the reman lifecycle across all speeds.
The graph above reflects the demand by vehicle age. As you can see, demand first jumps starting around the 5-year mark, not coincidentally when these vehicles are generally past the OE warranty period. Then, we see a peak in years 7-14. The circles overlaid on the lifecycle visually represent the current ages of each speed grouping. 6-speeds have the highest VIO (Vehicles in Operation) and optimal age for demand growth, consistent with what we observed earlier this year.
Unlike the 6-speeds that can expect growth in the upcoming years, we see 4-speeds falling dramatically as they reach the end of their lifecycle. Demand for these transmissions is more family-specific and not as broad as the 6-speeds. But we can’t get too comfortable with our 6-speed replacements, 8, 9, and 10 speeds are on the rise and will them selves be taking over the number one spot within the next six or seven years. ETE will be ready.
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